Abstracts:
CMOS
Ottawa, 2024-2025
(in
language
given)
Quinn Barber
Canada
experienced a record-breaking wildfire season in 2023, and another
exceptional wildfire season in 2024. This includes extensive peatland
burning, with wildfires approximately twice as likely to occur in
peatlands as in normal years. This represents an immediate risk to
boreal communities, as well as a potential risk to the massive carbon
stocks in northern peatlands. In this presentation I discuss some of
the issues and advances in remote mapping of peatland wildfires. I show
how we can use historical fires to estimate when peatlands may resist
wildfire spread, and when fire weather is severe enough to breach what
may otherwise be fire-resistant landscape. I also discuss the rising
prevalence and importance of overwinter holdover fires in peatlands,
which drove an early and extensive 2024 wildfire season in western
Canada.
Yasaman Amini
Peatlands
are increasingly vulnerable to drying due to climate change, driven by
rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. Monitoring
soil moisture is essential for detecting drought patterns. Synthetic
Aperture Radar (SAR) provide valuable insights into wetness
trends. I will discuss findings that link prolonged drying in
peatlands to an increased risk of fires, showing that soil moisture
reductions are often detectable 6–18 months before fire events. I will
also present the capabilities of the Soil Moisture Active Passive
(SMAP) satellite for providing frequent, global-scale data on soil
moisture. While SMAP has proven invaluable for large-scale monitoring,
I will also discuss its challenges in peatlands and explore efforts to
improve SMAP's performance for peatland soil moisture monitoring.
Nick Pontone
Peatland
mapping has benefited from improvements in the availability,
sensitivity, and resolution of satellite remote sensing in recent
years. Multi-sensor machine learning classification has facilitated the
high-resolution mapping and classification of peatlands, including
subdivision by peatland type. C-band and L-band synthetic-aperture
radar (SAR) plays a critical role in mapping of peatlands and other
water features due to its sensitivity to biomass and moisture
conditions. Here I will present a peatland subclass map for the
Canadian boreal forest, developed from multi-sensor remote sensing and
time series analysis. I will also show an analysis of peatland InSAR
coherence for peatlands in the northern hemisphere, including a
discussion on SAR interactions with soil hydrological and physical
properties.
Stewart:
The wildfires, floods and hailstorm of the summer of 2024 shattered the
record for any season of insured losses in Canadian history. With
losses escalating rapidly in both Canada and the United States,
insurers are adjusting property coverages to remain viable. This
presentation covers the changes we are now witnessing in both the
Canadian and American property insurance markets, the future of home
insurability and the measures that the property and casualty insurance
industry is advocating governments prioritize should property remain
insurable into the next decade.
Kovacs: Over a
thirty day period this summer Canadian insurers received more
than $7 billion in damage claims from storms in Toronto,
Montreal, Calgary, and a wildfire in Jasper, an unprecedented
total. Direct damage from climate-related events increased
20-fold over the past 40 years, doubling every 7 or 8 years, then
doubling again, and again. Investments in proven resilience
measures would significantly reduce the expected future loss and
damage. The presentation will explore how Canadians can break
this alarming trend of rising damage from severe weather.
Parsons:
Research has established that extreme rainfall events, often associated
with mesoscale convective systems, are increasing in our warming
climate with growing detrimental impacts on public safety, health, the
environment, and the economy. These flooding events are often nocturnal
and, unfortunately, an accurate representation of nocturnal convection
remains a significant challenge for global weather and climate models.
This study examines the trends, structure, interannual variations, and
predictability of extreme convective rainfall events over the US east
of the Rocky Mountains. The observations utilized include the high
resolution (4-km) Stage IV rainfall data over the period from 2003 to
2023. An increasing trend was found in the number of summer-time
extreme rainfall events caused by mesoscale convective systems. Events
with large total accumulation were often associated with elongated but
narrow (20-40 km wide) swaths of extreme rainfall that would be
difficult to represent in global weather and climate models. However,
paths toward accurate seasonal forecasts of the frequency of summertime
extreme rainfall events may be possible, since the interannual
variations in number of these events were found to be associated with
differences in the flow around the western edge of the North Atlantic
subtropical high. This talk will also present findings on how well
these extreme events are currently predicted in regional and global
prediction models. The talk will also discuss the interactions between
organized mesoscale convective systems and the jet stream showing how
this interaction is a source of downstream forecast failures in global
models.
Berry:
Climate change is threatening the health and
well-being of Canadians by increasing climate hazards related to air
pollution, water and food safety and security, infectious diseases,
extreme weather events (e. g., wildfires, extreme heat events,
flooding) and through effects on mental health. As risks continue to
grow, health authorities from local to national levels are seeking
evidence-based information and tools to rapidly scale-up measures to
protect individuals, their communities and their health systems. The
World Health Organization has identified integrated risk monitoring and
surveillance and early warning systems as key actions to reduce the
impacts of climate change.
In this presentation Peter will review the latest evidence of climate
change risks to health based on findings of the Health Canada report Health
of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing Our Knowledge for
Action. He will then discuss opportunities and challenges for utilizing
climate services to protect health in a warning world.
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