Abstracts:
CMOS
Ottawa, 2020-2021
(in
language
given)
Twidle: While a global
pandemic paused many aspects of our lives in 2020, extreme weather
events gave us no reprieve. Natural and man-made disasters, known as
“catastrophes,” in the insurance industry, broke global records around
the world last year, and Canada was no exception. Insured losses in
Canada from catastrophic events in 2020 were nearly CAN $2.4 billion,
continuing the past decade’s trend of increasing annual losses.
Identifying
and preparing for the concerns of the more frequent, more severe
extreme weather events anticipated by climate change is key to reducing
impacts on Canadians. Insured loss data in combination with climate
data and mitigation techniques can provide decision makers with the
necessary information to act.
This
presentation will provide an analysis of the meteorological factors at
work in natural catastrophes and the geographical distribution of
Canada’s NatCATs, with emphasis on 2020, using data collected by CatIQ,
Canada’s insured loss and exposure indices provider. Analysis will
include a close look at 2020 insured loss data and how it compares to
the Canadian catastrophe loss database.
Niemi: Arctic Cod
and copepod zooplankton are key forage
species supporting subsistence species and ecosystem stability in
coastal and offshore regions of the western Canadian Arctic. Long-term
ocean observatories (1999-2018), ecosystem- based ship surveys
(2012-2019) and acoustic moorings (AZFP) have together provided
insights into the magnitude and timing of forage species responses to
variable sea-ice and wind conditions. We present the multi-year forage
species response to the 2012 record low summer sea-ice event, and we
show how recent increases in downwelling favorable winds are supporting
the concentration of forage species in areas of importance for Arctic
Cod spawning and bowhead feeding. We also explore potential drivers
related to changes in Pacific inflow, including associated ocean
acidification, that could affect forage species on the Mackenzie Shelf
and in the Amundsen Gulf.
Drever: Alongside the steep reductions
needed in fossil fuel
emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable
land-based options that can contribute to Canada's goals for emissions
reductions. We estimate the potential for mitigation of climate change
from 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of
agricultural lands, wetlands, grasslands and forests. These "pathways"
can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil
productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. We
identify promising mitigation potential for NCS in Canada, with a
significant proportion available as cost-effective mitigation. Pathways
with potential include avoided conversion of grasslands, avoided
peatland disturbance, cover crops and improved forest management. NCS
represent an important potential contribution to Canada's commitments
under the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing
mitigation plans could help Canada to meet and exceed its climate goals.
Ward:
Over
70% of our world is covered by oceans, yet only an estimated 5% of
our oceans have been explored and charted. Underwater exploration
requires advanced shipboard technologies and dedicated vessels. The Motor
Vessel Alucia provides a unique research platform for this
endeavour. MV Alucia is a sophisticated deep sea exploration
vessel that combines the capabilities of a modern research ship with
the comforts of a luxury yacht. Mark Ward has planned and coordinated
expeditions for the owner of Alucia ocean philanthropist Mr.
Ray Dalio since 2012. He also supports missions and outreach efforts
for the OceanX, the non-profit research group founded by Mr. Dalio in
2018 (www.oceanx.org).
He
will
outline the ship’s facilities and their use to support and facilitate a
range of diving, submersible and aerial research operations; as well as
for filming of the oceans, as featured in the BBC series ‘The Blue
Planet II’. He will also highlight some of the research that has
been done and introduce a new vessel the OceanXplorer, that was
recently launched to augment the research efforts of OceanX.
Abby_Andrew_Adam:
Atmospheric
warming is leading to rapid glacier surface melting, which releases
vast volumes of freshwater to the ocean. Where glaciers flow into the
sea, warm subsurface ocean water can also drive submarine melting
leading to rapid terminus retreat and the production of icebergs. This
series of talks will investigate relationships between changes in
glaciers, the ocean, and icebergs in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
(CAA).
Abby
uses speckle-tracking to produce a 12-year record (2009-2019) of winter
surface velocities for the main outlet glaciers from the Prince of
Wales Icefield, Ellesmere Island. Combined with thickness measurements,
terminus retreat rates, and bed topography, this research will help to
determine the processes controlling iceberg production from this region.
Andrew
will discuss efforts to understand glacier-ocean interactions at the
largest iceberg producing glacier in the CAA, including research from a
polar sailing yacht. He will also present a new initiative, the
Canadian Arctic Bedmap Project, which aims to produce a comprehensive
DEM of subglacial and bathymetric bed topography for the next
generation of high-resolution coupled glacier-ocean models.
Adam
uses an unprecedented dataset of iceberg drift trajectories to perform
the first large-scale validation of the North American Ice Service
iceberg drift model in the CAA. Model skill will be assessed by
performing hindcast simulations of iceberg drift and quantifying the
error between observed and modeled drift tracks. This research will
contribute to ongoing efforts to enhance the model to more accurately
forecast the drift path of icebergs and improve safety in Arctic waters.
Gajewski:
Evidence
of Holocene climate variability of the Canadian
Arctic can be extracted from ice cores, but these do not reveal spatial
differences across the region. In recent years, a sufficient number of
lake sediment records have been accumulated from across the Canadian
Arctic and coastal Greenland to allow the
depiction of the time-space evolution of the climate during the past
10ka. Maximum Holocene temperatures (prior to the current warming)
occurred earlier in the western Arctic than in
the eastern Arctic or southern Greenland,
with a general cooling (neoglaciation) in the late Holocene across most
of the region. Major transitions are synchronous across the region.
Similar climate sequences are seen in the boreal forest and at the
forest- tundra ecotone, where interpretation of the vegetation response
("shrubification") is more subtle than a simple north-south movement of
treeline. The space-time variation in climate can be explained as a
response to insolation and ice sheet forcing. This climate variability
had impacts on Arctic vegetation, and can be used to understand how
current warming may affect Arctic ecosystems. Arctic plants migrated
rapidly across the entire region after deglaciation, with no evidence
of a "migration lag" to climate changes. The major impact of
climate warming on Arctic vegetation was on primary production, whereas
impacts on biodiversity are more subtle. Variations in climate also
impacted human population dynamics of the Arctic,
as shown by a paleo-demographic analysis of archaeological dates from
northern North America.
Mueller:
In late July 2020, a large rift formed across the Milne
Ice Shelf and resulted in the calving of 43% of its surface area. The
Milne Ice Shelf was the last remnant of the larger 'Ellesmere Ice
Shelf' to undergo a major calving event. This ice shelf was
thicker and better protected than others in the Canadian High Arctic
and it dammed the mouth of Milne Fiord creating a freshwater lake to
its landward side. This 'epishelf lake' has been monitored over
time to reveal inter-annual and seasonal changes and hosts fresh and
brackish water species directly on top of the Arctic Ocean. The
ice shelf itself is a cryo-habitat for microbial communities that live
on its surface while a community of benthic animals was recently
discovered within the ice shelf. The fate of these cryo-environments is
unknown following the events of last summer, but the trend in habitat
loss along this coast is undeniable. The need to conserve this
region and its vulnerable ice-dependent ecosystems is clear and efforts
are underway to make a permanent marine protected area at these high
latitudes. This conservation effort should be optimized by
extending protection both east and west in addition to incorporating
the terrestrial environment that is closely interconnected with the
Arctic Ocean along this coast. However, global action to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions must be part of the solution to mitigate
future cryo-habitat loss due to environmental change.
Einarsdottir: In light of our
current situation, with COVID completely disrupting the ways of our
orchestral world, I would like to come at the topic of Music and
Climate from a slightly different angle and call it Orchestral Music
and Social Change and to put forward this question: how can a symphonic
orchestra, that is so heavily rooted in our cultural heritage, mostly
performing repertoire and music from the past, be relevant and deal
with current issues of today. To answer this I would like to talk about
how we at the NAC Orchestra decided to shift our focus entirely. How we
are now using this time of disruption to explore what the future holds
for our art form, both in terms of the music we perform, who we choose
as our artistic partners and how we use the digital medium to reach our
audience and expand the experience. We have already shown this in our
first NACO Live concert, which featured works by two women composers,
three composers of colour and two young Canadian soloists from BIPOC
communities, with a logged in audience of 2000 people and an
overwhelming positive response and praise. Like COVID, the climate
crisis is threatening to disturb our ways of living. The climate
crisis has become a topic that artists are working with in their
creations. It is almost like a new field within the arts. This is
understandable as the arts function like our digestion system. First we
need the science to bring us the facts and then the arts take over and
use them to inspire their art, music and stories so that we can
internalize the facts and understand on an emotional level. Not until
this happens can we truly expect any real change. This is exactly why
the arts, and artists are so important to our societies. This is also
why it is my firm belief that scientists and artists should work much
more closely together, particularly now, when we need to deliver the
urgent message of change. We hope that the Ideas of North festival will
become this meeting point of music and science and that it will help us
digest and internalize what is actually happening, and hopefully help
us in making the important change we need for the future of the planet.
In my talk I will give some interesting examples of the power of music
and arts to deliver this message.
Phillips:
Urban floods, ice rains, winter heat
waves, interface wildfires, weather bombs, megadroughts - if you think
we've been cursed and clobbered a lot harder and a lot more often
recently, you are not imagining it. It used to be that our weather was
"normal" and dependable. Now, more and more Canadians are asking:
What's happening to our weather? If our weather is becoming
weirder and wilder are people responsible or
is it nature doing this to us? Or both? Maybe we are changing more than
the weather. What has become clear is that the Earth is warming, and
the number of weather-related disasters is on the rise. We can no
longer assume that yesterday's weather will apply tomorrow.
Holloway:
Climate
change is causing increases in the frequency, severity, and extent of
fires, which is expected to change how permafrost responds and recovers
after disturbance. There is a pressing need to better understand how
certain variables affected post-fire permafrost dynamics in a changing
climate. This was addressed through in-situ measurements and analysis
of permafrost conditions following fires occurring over the last half
century along a 650 km latitudinal transect spanning the discontinuous
zones, from isolated patches to extensive discontinuous permafrost.
Overall, the findings suggested that there has been significant
permafrost degradation, due to both climate warming in the region and
fire, especially at sites with thin organic layers, low gravimetric
moisture content, and coarse-grained soils. Degradation also occurred
at high ice-content sites, where ground subsidence and thermokarst
develop, particularly in severely burned areas. However, permafrost
persisted at sites where black spruce canopies with organic layers
generally 40 cm thick overlie fine-grained sediments. Post-fire
permafrost change occurred at sites which burned in the last 10 years,
but over the long-term, frozen ground appeared resilient to fire, with
characteristics like active layer thickness returning to pre-fire
levels. However, this may change in the future as the climate continues
to warm and the fire regime shifts. This research underlines the
importance of monitoring and modelling a variety of landscape types to
establish post-fire permafrost impacts, and more specifically the
effects of heterogeneity of drainage conditions, substrate, and organic
layer thicknesses on the fate of permafrost in the boreal forest.
Derksen: Canada's
Changing Climate Report was released on April 1st, 2019. Led by
Environment and Climate Change Canada, this is the first report to be
released through the national assessment report series: Canada in a
Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. The report
provides comprehensive information on how and why Canada's climate has
changed, and what changes are projected for the future. This talk
will present results from the report on changes across Canada in
temperature, precipitation, snow, ice and permafrost, freshwater
availability as well as in Canada's three ocean's. Changes in
Canada's climate will be considered within the broader context of
global-scale changes, with a focus on recent results from the IPCC
Special Report on The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.
|
|