Abstracts: CMOS
Ottawa, 2012-2013
(in
language
given)
Taillefer
& McMillan: At the 2012 CMOS Congress, Marty Taillefer
proposed that CMOS become more engaged in rapidly emerging Arctic
issues. Following this discussion, in the fall, Marty, David Fissel,
and Ann McMillan put together a draft Terms of Reference for a CMOS
Special Interest Group as described under the CMOS Bylaws. The proposal
went through the National Council and was approved.
Attracting
membership in the Arctic SIG was an important part of getting the SIG
approved. By sending e-mail to interested people, the Arctic SIG
membership list quickly grew to about 75 people representing
government, academia and the private sector. It was clear that the
concept was popular and that many CMOS Members saw the need for such an
activity within the Society, but it was less clear exactly how the
Arctic SIG should proceed to develop a workplan and take on some of the
many obvious challenges. There have been a number of Ottawa Centre
lunch speakers who have addressed the North in their talks over the
last year. the melting ice and opening water present many challenges
and opportunities in the meteorological and oceanographic sector.
As a
first step, it was decided to use the 2013 CMOS Congress as a way of
bootstrapping the activity. A "stream" of Arctic presentation has been
organized with 21 papers on Arctic topics to be presented. Beyond this,
a half day session is planned on 26 May, 2013 in Saskatoon to convene
members and other interested people to discuss next steps. The
objective is to arrive at a manageable number of projects to be
accomplished over the following months as well as to identify members
who have specific Arctic interests and who are willing to lead
activities on behalf of the Arctic SIG.
It
is recognized that many Ottawa Centre CMOS members will not be able to
attend the meeting in Saskatoon. For this reason, Marty and Ann will
provide a short presentation followed by a discussion on 16 May, 2013
at the CMOS Lunch. Please come along and bring your expertise and ideas
for next steps for the Arctic SIG.
McElroy:
From the deployment of a Canadian ozone monitoring system during the
International Geophysical Year in 1957, through the signing of the
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and the
development of the Montreal Protocol 25 years ago, and up to the
present, Canada has played a leading role in the measurement of ozone.
The speaker has been intimately involved in study of ozone since 1970,
and will share his viewpoint on the contribution Canadian science has
made to ozone science globally.
Bruce:
Climate change is having a significant impact on Canada's waters.
Evidence to date indicates declining flows and levels on average in
most lakes, and rivers in southern Canada. Paradoxically, flash floods
in small basins with heavy rain events are on the increase, and floods
in mid country rivers have been more frequent for reasons that will be
discussed. Water quality and lake ecosystems are also being degraded,
e. g. Lakes Erie and Winnipeg. In part due to climate related
phenomena. Frozen water (ice) is melting in glaciers, on lakes, in the
Arctic, and in soil (permafrost) with major consequences. These trends
are harbingers of increasingly difficult problems in coming decades
unless strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions and effective
Canadian water adaptations can be launched.
St. Coeur:
The Meteorological Service of Canada's (MSC) warning system for
high-impact weather is being systematically modernized as one of the
MSC's priority signature projects. Every step of the system for issuing
alerts - from science and monitoring to production, dissemination, and
verification - will be affected by the changes. The changes will take
several years to implement. The Warning Re-engineering Project will
improve the quality and reach of weather alerts as well as provide
better decision-making advice and support to users. Its goal is to
quickly and clearly convey the potential impacts of approaching severe
weather so people can assess the situation and take steps to reduce
risks. The multi-pronged project will involve increased collaboration
with public authorities who have expertise in dealing with the impacts
of hazardous weather, such as flooding, snow clearance, and traffic, as
well as with emergency responders, media, and others. Over the next
five years the Warning Re-engineering Project will focus on improving
verification and assessment, ensuring that the system is flexible and
adaptable to new technologies, increasing channels and products in
order to increase outreach, and ensuring alignment with another
signature project aimed at revitalizing the forecast production
infrastructure.
Gilbert:
The oceans play many roles in the climate system of our planet, whose
area is 71% covered by them. To date, the oceans have stored about 90%
of the additional heat due to increased greenhouse gas emissions linked
to human activities. Due to their large thermal inertia, the oceans
tend to warm and cool more slowly than the atmosphere when climate
disruptions occur. An important fraction of the warming due to
greenhouse gas emissions thus remains to come, because several
centuries are required before a new thermal equilibrium can be reached
between the ocean and atmosphere. A second crucial role played by
oceans in the climate system has to do with carbon dioxide absorption.
Unfortunately, this carbon sink service performed by the oceans causes
a progressive acidification of oceans that could harm some life forms
whose exoskeleton is mainly composed of calcareous materials. Ocean
deoxygenation and possible impacts on the nitrogen cycle will also be
discussed.
Kilpatrick:
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans owns and maintains a large
national system of commercial fishing harbours to provide fish
harvesters and other harbour users with safe and accessible facilities.
At DFO, the Small Craft Harbours (SCH) Program is responsible for
keeping these harbours, which are critical to the fishing industry,
open and in good repair. Since the majority of these facilities are
located in coastal regions, they are particularly vulnerable to
potential climate change effects such as rising sea levels and storm
surges. This presentation will provide an overview of the work that is
being done in the SCH program to evaluate and address potential climate
change effects on marine and coastal infrastructure.
Carmack:
This talk will review the Arctic Ocean's place in the global climate
system, highlight changes we are seeing in the physical world of ocean
currents and sea ice cover, and then explore what such changes - as
components of a coupled system - will mean in terms of marine life and
ecosystems, invasive species, ocean acidification and challenges to
governance. Changes in the physical system actually observed over
recent years have far out-paced the most pessimistic of model
predictions used in the 4th IPCC report of 2007. An 'early warning
system' grounded in observations carried out by Northern residents is
suggested.
Comfort:
The speaker has made ice load measurements at 11 sites over the past 20
years, in total 29 "dam-winters", and has led a project to develop a
method for predicting ice loads on dams and their associated return
periods. The talk will start with a discussion of the motivation for
conducting the work. Next, the mechanisms that generate ice loads at
dams and the controlling factors will be discussed, followed by a
synopsis of the scope of the work including the measurement methods
used. Finally, the main findings of the work will be summarized.
Zagon:
Knowledge of the fate of the lost vessels HMS Erebus and HMS Terror is
based on archaeological evidence and Inuit testimony. Historical
satellite imagery of ice conditions in the region where the vessels
became beset and were abandoned presents an additional source of
information. Since 1995, high-resolution Radarsat imagery is being
archived at the Canadian Ice Service and an ice study based on these
images is helping to shape the search effort presently under way.
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